商台回歸十五年專輯訪問
https://www.dropbox.com/s/8ntd34y5tbdzhkk/20120626-%E5%95%86%E5%8F%B0%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%E5%8D%81%E4%BA%94%E5%B9%B4%E5%B0%88%E8%BC%AF.mp3?dl=0
2012年6月26日星期二
2012年6月13日星期三
Boney M - Rasputin
There lived a certain man in Russia long ago
He was big and strong, in his eyes a flaming glow
Most people looked at him with terror and with fear
But to Moscow chicks he was such a lovely dear
He could preach the bible like a preacher
Full of ecstacy and fire
But he also was the kind of teacher
Women would desire
RA RA RASPUTIN
Lover of the Russian queen
There was a cat that really was gone
RA RA RASPUTIN
Russia's greatest love machine
It was a shame how he carried on
He ruled the Russian land and never mind the czar
But the kasachok he danced really wunderbar
In all affairs of state he was the man to please
But he was real great when he had a girl to squeeze
For the queen he was no wheeler dealer
Though she'd heard the things he'd done
She believed he was a holy healer
Who would heal her son
(Spoken:)
But when his drinking and lusting and his hunger
for power became known to more and more people,
the demands to do something about this outrageous
man became louder and louder.
"This man's just got to go!" declared his enemies
But the ladies begged "Don't you try to do it, please"
No doubt this Rasputin had lots of hidden charms
Though he was a brute they just fell into his arms
Then one night some men of higher standing
Set a trap, they're not to blame
"Come to visit us" they kept demanding
And he really came
RA RA RASPUTIN
Lover of the Russian queen
They put some poison into his wine
RA RA RASPUTIN
Russia's greatest love machine
He drank it all and he said "I feel fine"
RA RA RASPUTIN
Lover of the Russian queen
They didn't quit, they wanted his head
RA RA RASPUTIN
Russia's greatest love machine
And so they shot him till he was dead
(Spoken:) Oh, those Russians...
2012年4月25日星期三
2012年2月27日星期一
Jesse Livermore’s 5 money management rules
1) Don’t lose money.
Don’t lose your stake. A speculator without cash is like a store-owner with no inventory. Cash is your inventory, your lifeline, and your best friend. Without cash, you are out of business. Don’t lose your line.
There is no place in speculating for hoping, for guessing, for fear, for greed, for emotions. The tape tells the truth.
2) Always establish a stop.
A successful speculator must set a firm stop before making a trade and must never sustain a loss of more than 10 percent of invested capital.
I have also learned that when your broker calls you and tells you he needs more money for a margin requirement on a stock that is declining, tell him to sell out the position. When you buy a stock at 50 and it goes to 45, do not buy more in order to average out your price. The stock has not done what you predicted; that is enough of an indication that your judgment was wrong. Take your losses quickly and get out.
Remember, never meet a margin call, and never average losses.
Many times I would close out a position before suffering a 10 percent loss. I did this simply because the stock was not acting right from the start. Often my instincts would whisper to me:J.L., this stock has a malaise, it is a lagging dullard. It just does not feel right, and I would sell out of my position in the blink of an eye.
I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are repeated and appear over and over with slight variations. This is because humans drive the stocks, and human nature never changes.
Take your losses quickly. Easy to say, but hard to do.
3) Keep cash in reserve.
The successful speculator must always have cash in reserve for exactly the right moment. There is a never-ending stream of opportunities in the stock market and, if you miss a good opportunity, wait a little while, be patient, and another one will come along. Don’t reach for a trade, all the conditions for a good trade must be on your side. Remember, you do not have to be in the market all the time.
The desire to always be in the game is one of the speculator’s greatest hazards.
When playing the stock market, there are times when your money should be waiting on the sidelines in cash waiting to come into play. Time is not money “ time is time, and money is money.
Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a fast fortune. Patience is the key to success, not speed. Time is a cunning speculator’s best friend if it is used wisely.
4) Let the position ride.
As long as the stock is behaving normally, do not be in a hurry to take a profit. You must know you are right in your basic judgment, or you would have no profit at all. If there is nothing basically negative, then let it ride. It may grow into a very large profit. As long as the action of the overall market and the stock do not give you cause to worry, have the courage of your convictions, and stay with it.
When I was in a profit on a trade, I was never nervous.
Of course the opposite is true as well. If I bought a stock and it went against me I would sell it immediately. You can’t stop and try to figure out why a stock is going in the wrong direction. The fact is that it is going in the wrong direction, and that is enough evidence for an experienced speculator to close the trade.
I do not and never have blindly bought and held a stock.
To buy and hold blindly on the basis that a stock is in great company or a strong industry, or that the economy is generally healthy, is, to me the equivalent of stock market suicide.
Stick with the winners. Let them ride until you have a clear reason to sell.
5) Take the profits in cash.
I recommend parking 50 percent of the profits from a successful trade, especially when the trade doubled the original capital. Set the money aside, put it in the bank, hold it in reserve, or lock it up in a safe-deposit box.
Like winning in the casino, it’s a good idea, now and then to take your winnings off the table and turn them into cash is the single largest regret I have ever had in my financial life was not paying enough attention to this rule.
Don’t lose your stake. A speculator without cash is like a store-owner with no inventory. Cash is your inventory, your lifeline, and your best friend. Without cash, you are out of business. Don’t lose your line.
There is no place in speculating for hoping, for guessing, for fear, for greed, for emotions. The tape tells the truth.
2) Always establish a stop.
A successful speculator must set a firm stop before making a trade and must never sustain a loss of more than 10 percent of invested capital.
I have also learned that when your broker calls you and tells you he needs more money for a margin requirement on a stock that is declining, tell him to sell out the position. When you buy a stock at 50 and it goes to 45, do not buy more in order to average out your price. The stock has not done what you predicted; that is enough of an indication that your judgment was wrong. Take your losses quickly and get out.
Remember, never meet a margin call, and never average losses.
Many times I would close out a position before suffering a 10 percent loss. I did this simply because the stock was not acting right from the start. Often my instincts would whisper to me:J.L., this stock has a malaise, it is a lagging dullard. It just does not feel right, and I would sell out of my position in the blink of an eye.
I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are repeated and appear over and over with slight variations. This is because humans drive the stocks, and human nature never changes.
Take your losses quickly. Easy to say, but hard to do.
3) Keep cash in reserve.
The successful speculator must always have cash in reserve for exactly the right moment. There is a never-ending stream of opportunities in the stock market and, if you miss a good opportunity, wait a little while, be patient, and another one will come along. Don’t reach for a trade, all the conditions for a good trade must be on your side. Remember, you do not have to be in the market all the time.
The desire to always be in the game is one of the speculator’s greatest hazards.
When playing the stock market, there are times when your money should be waiting on the sidelines in cash waiting to come into play. Time is not money “ time is time, and money is money.
Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a fast fortune. Patience is the key to success, not speed. Time is a cunning speculator’s best friend if it is used wisely.
4) Let the position ride.
As long as the stock is behaving normally, do not be in a hurry to take a profit. You must know you are right in your basic judgment, or you would have no profit at all. If there is nothing basically negative, then let it ride. It may grow into a very large profit. As long as the action of the overall market and the stock do not give you cause to worry, have the courage of your convictions, and stay with it.
When I was in a profit on a trade, I was never nervous.
Of course the opposite is true as well. If I bought a stock and it went against me I would sell it immediately. You can’t stop and try to figure out why a stock is going in the wrong direction. The fact is that it is going in the wrong direction, and that is enough evidence for an experienced speculator to close the trade.
I do not and never have blindly bought and held a stock.
To buy and hold blindly on the basis that a stock is in great company or a strong industry, or that the economy is generally healthy, is, to me the equivalent of stock market suicide.
Stick with the winners. Let them ride until you have a clear reason to sell.
5) Take the profits in cash.
I recommend parking 50 percent of the profits from a successful trade, especially when the trade doubled the original capital. Set the money aside, put it in the bank, hold it in reserve, or lock it up in a safe-deposit box.
Like winning in the casino, it’s a good idea, now and then to take your winnings off the table and turn them into cash is the single largest regret I have ever had in my financial life was not paying enough attention to this rule.
2011年12月31日星期六
2011年9月24日星期六
NEW YEAR PICK (2010)
適逢全球股市大跌，這個時後才揀New Year
Pick，的確有點「攞景贈興」。不過，這亦是一個趁低吸納優質股的好時機。
今年的New Year Pick，仍是我的愛股「達芙妮」（00210）。2007年4月的火紅歲月，「達芙妮」股價竟在基本因素未配合的情況下被炒高至$9.8，可是在2009年1月大熊市時，只餘$1.11。去年動作多多，既引入TPG基金作策略投資者，最近又收購中高檔零售商Full Pearl的60%股權。勵精圖治，動態明顯。而股價上半年隨大市急升至合理水平後升勢放緩，而按0.618的黃金比率計算的神奇數字$6.48，就成為近期股價上落的中軸位。而早在低位買飽貨的機構投資者Sansar如扑傻瓜般每每逢高減持，令股價升幅受制，最近一次更以每股6.54元配股，恰巧就在神奇數字附近。現時其持股量已低於5%的披露水平，相信仍會繼續出貨。待貨源重新分配後，再配合亮麗業績，才會重
內需股隨國家政策炒到火熱，PE動輒30開外，40至50仍大不乏股，既便宜又在其本業有高市場佔有率的買少見少，不過「達芙妮」現價按2009年市盈率竟低於20倍，是不是too good to be true？今年是否仍能維持穩定的高增長？我實在不知道，我只知道過去兩三年，無論整體零售市況如何，其盈利增長都是雙位數字，而今年受惠於大陸國策造就的強勁內需，怎樣計都應該比過去兩年好罷。Anyway, I’ll keep my fingers crossed。
(2010年1月22日收市價：$6.15)
今年的New Year Pick，仍是我的愛股「達芙妮」（00210）。2007年4月的火紅歲月，「達芙妮」股價竟在基本因素未配合的情況下被炒高至$9.8，可是在2009年1月大熊市時，只餘$1.11。去年動作多多，既引入TPG基金作策略投資者，最近又收購中高檔零售商Full Pearl的60%股權。勵精圖治，動態明顯。而股價上半年隨大市急升至合理水平後升勢放緩，而按0.618的黃金比率計算的神奇數字$6.48，就成為近期股價上落的中軸位。而早在低位買飽貨的機構投資者Sansar如扑傻瓜般每每逢高減持，令股價升幅受制，最近一次更以每股6.54元配股，恰巧就在神奇數字附近。現時其持股量已低於5%的披露水平，相信仍會繼續出貨。待貨源重新分配後，再配合亮麗業績，才會重
內需股隨國家政策炒到火熱，PE動輒30開外，40至50仍大不乏股，既便宜又在其本業有高市場佔有率的買少見少，不過「達芙妮」現價按2009年市盈率竟低於20倍，是不是too good to be true？今年是否仍能維持穩定的高增長？我實在不知道，我只知道過去兩三年，無論整體零售市況如何，其盈利增長都是雙位數字，而今年受惠於大陸國策造就的強勁內需，怎樣計都應該比過去兩年好罷。Anyway, I’ll keep my fingers crossed。
(2010年1月22日收市價：$6.15)
2011年5月27日星期五
利信達穩守突擊
近年將發展重點移至內地的利信達(738)，已悄然成為一隻內地消費股，最初市場尚未反映，長於$1.8水平徘徊，但去年年中公佈驕人業績後乘勢開車，最高升至$5.75後輾轉回落，近期則在$3.6至$4.2範圍上落。
對抗成本飛漲
昨日公布截至2011年2月底的全年業績，收益升32%至13.2億元，毛利增36.9%至8.298億元，基本溢利增53.5%至1.627億元，純利增37%至1.685億元，每股盈利增36.9%至$0.2636，派末期息$0.087。而截至2月底，現金結餘淨額增22%至3.5億元。
這份業績雖未達交銀國際所預測的每股盈利$0.28(增長43.8%)，但也絕不失禮。要知道上個財政年度有特殊盈利入賬，本業的每股盈利乃$0.165，以此作基數，今次業績的每股盈利是上升60%（約數）！作為小股東應該收貨罷。
再和同業比較，百麗(1880)2011年首三個月同店增幅強勁，鞋履銷售業務升22%。管理層相信鞋履同店銷售可增長15%。而另一隻鞋履股達芙妮(210)首季同店銷售增長僅為1%，主因冬季較預期寒冷，產品未能配合，估計全年可將整體同店銷售增長維持於6%。2010年，利信達同店銷售增長率為16%至17%，而估計2011年為15%。同業間成績差距十分大，可見競爭激烈，策略上絕對容不下一子錯。
去年，利信達忽然宣佈減慢擴張速度，計畫於2010年財政年度底前將在中國店鋪目標由1000間減至750間。而位於順德及高明的擴展產能計劃卻如期進行，高明新生產基地已在去年7月投產。以前副線品牌CnE有30%產品外發代工生產，今年會增加自己生產比重，以提高質量。另一邊廂，大陸品牌星期六鞋業(002291.SZ)卻宣佈擬終止女鞋生產線擴建項目，將1.14億元資金用於開設240家銷售連鎖店，展開「五年千店」計劃，往後產能轉而依靠代工生產(OEM)。當然，OEM的產品質素，穩定性一定不及自家製作。目前星期六鞋業約有1700間分店，其中900間為自營店，規模比利信達略大。兩者相比，利信達是打穩守突擊策略，後者則打有前冇後的全攻型，作風南轅北轍，誰勝誰負？單論往績，香港品牌利信達當然勝一籌。
利信達將繼續集中發展中國大陸的零售業務，目標是於2012年8月前開設合共1,000家店舖。從地區上劃分，除珠江三角洲及長江三角洲外，集團將分配更多資源發展潛力可觀的地區，如福建、遼寧、雲南、湖南及安徽省。現時於港澳及大陸共有790家分店，較去年的店舖數目增加222家。未來將會推出男裝新品牌，價格約$1,500至$2,000；而女裝新品牌Linea Rosa則暫時在le saunda分店銷售，但有計劃以此為名開設15至20間專賣店。
|
公司
|
首三個月同店銷售
|
估計2011年同店銷售
|
2010年盈利增長
|
分店大約數目
|
|
百麗(1880)
|
22%
|
15%
|
40.29%
|
12000
|
|
達芙妮(210)
|
1%
|
6%
|
51.21%
|
5199
|
|
星期六鞋業(002291.SZ)
|
未有數據
|
未有數據
|
-11.87%
|
1713
|
|
利信達(738)
|
15%
|
15%
|
36.9%
|
790
|
對抗成本飛漲
經營開支上升就是利信達未來面對的最大挑戰。除了將成本轉介消費者外，可有其他策應付各方面的成本飛漲？
利信達造鞋的皮料，很大部份是歐洲進口，去年歐圓疲弱對其有利，但今年歐圓顯注上升，對其成本會已構成壓力。原材料價格今年仍會上漲，尤以羊仔皮為甚，但漲幅已較去年底放緩，而人民幣升值，料將可抵銷部分原升幅。
另一方面，造鞋業是傳統勞動密集型行業，不能以機器取代，隨著勞動力成本的不斷上漲，按星期六鞋業的業績報告所言，工人平均年工薪由2007年的22,038元上升至2010年的28,933元。而且鞋業所面臨的人手短缺問題越來越嚴重，尤以熟手技工為甚。幸好，勞工成本佔集團約15%，對毛利影響有限，而預計今年工資升幅約8%至10%。
中港兩地，租金節節攀升，侵蝕零售業不少利潤，店租通常三年為期，到期加租動輒
抵銷成本上升的最佳方法，就是提高效率。利信達的廠房正進行一系列優化計劃，並從多方面著手提高營運效率，包括樣品開發、材料採購、生產規劃、品質控制及倉庫管理，並已聘請業內富經驗及專業知識的專家去執行。
不過，利信達仍有隱憂。於
綜觀各項因素，利信達經營手法雖略嫌保守，但公司財政穩健，業務食正大陸內需大浪，發展迅速，值得審慎看好。首個目標價是反彈至黃金比率0.382的$4.31(市盈率16倍)；其後阻力為$4.58和$4.85；如整體市況轉好，最樂觀計算，年內有機會升穿市盈率20倍的$5.27。
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